Polar Ice Sheets Shrinking Worldwide, Study Confirms

The polar ice sheets are indeed shrinking—and fast, according to a comprehensive new study on climate change.

And the effects, according to an international team, are equally clear—sea levels are rising faster than predicted, which could bring about disastrous effects for people and wildlife.

Rising seas would increase the risk of catastrophic flooding like that caused by Hurricane Sandy last month in New York and New Jersey. Environmental damage may include widespread erosion, contamination of aquifers and crops, and harm to marine life. And in the long term, rising seas may force hundreds of millions of people who live along the coast to abandon their homes.

By reconciling nearly two decades of often conflicting satellite data into one format—in other words, comparing apples to apples—the new study, published in the journal Science, made a more confident estimate of what's called ice sheet mass balance.

That refers to how much snow is deposited on an ice sheet versus how much is lost, either due to surface melting or ice breaking off glaciers.

Between 1992—when polar satellite measurements began—and 2011, the results show that all of the polar regions except for East Antarctica are losing ice, said study leader Andrew Shepherd, a professor of earth observation at the University of Leeds in the U.K.

In that 20-year span, Greenland lost 152 billion tons a year of ice, West Antarctica lost 65 billion tons a year, the Antarctic Peninsula lost 20 billion tons a year, and East Antarctica gained 14 billion tons a year. (See an interactive map of Antarctica.)

"When we did the experiments properly using the same time periods and same maps, the riddles did all agree," Shepherd said.

According to glaciologist Alexander Robinson, "We've had a good idea of what the ice sheets are doing, but it seems this study really brings it all together in one data set that gives a much clearer picture.

"It's one more piece of supporting evidence that shows there are some dramatic changes happening, and we know that's being driven mainly by a warmer climate and warmer ocean—but there's still a lot we don't know about these regions and how they're changing," said Robinson, of the Complutense University of Madrid in Spain, who was not involved in the research.

(Read "The Big Thaw" in National Geographic magazine.)

Shrinking Ice Consistent With Warming

For the study, Shepherd and his team took data from three fields of satellite research: Altimetry, which measures the shapes of ice sheets and how they change over time; interferometry, which tracks the speed of ice sheets; and gravimetry, which calculates the weight of ice sheets by measuring Earth's gravitational field.

"Up until now there have been more than 30 studies that have each produced their own estimates of changes in ice sheets," Shepherd said.

"What we did was try to take the strengths of each approach and combined all the satellite technology together to get a better estimate of how ice sheets are changing," he said.

The results are also consistent with observations of climate change at the poles, Shepherd noted.

For instance, Greenland is shedding five times as much ice as 20 years ago, which fits with a trend of rising air temperatures in the Arctic.

(Pictures: "Changing Greenland" in National Geographic magazine.)

In West Antarctica, glacier loss is accelerating in an area where the ocean is getting warmer. East Antarctica is experiencing a slight increase in the amount of ice stored there, but that dovetails with higher rates of snowfall expected with climate change.

However, the growth isn't enough to compensate for the larger losses in the rest of Antarctica, the researchers say. (Related: "Why Antarctic Sea Ice Is Growing in a Warmer World.")

"The fact that Antarctica is definitely losing ice is a novel conclusion when we compare it to the last IPCC report in 2007, when scientists weren't sure if Antarctica was growing or shrinking," Shepherd said.

"Our data are now two to three times as accurate as those that were available at the time of the last IPCC report." The IPCC, or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is the leading international body for the study of climate change.

Rising Seas

Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the Boulder, Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the study, said the new study's "evidence is very compelling that global warming is playing a role in massive ice losses on land that contribute to sea level rise."

(Also see "Sea Levels Rising Fast on U.S. East Coast.")

Overall, polar ice loss has contributed about 11.1 millimeters to global sea level since 1992—roughly 20 percent of the total global sea level rise during that period, according to the study.

What's more, a study published earlier this week in Environmental Research Letters shows that sea levels are rising at a rate of 3.2 millimeters a year. That's 60 percent faster than the latest estimate of 2 millimeters a year projected by the IPCC. (See sea level rise pictures.)

"These results should be a major concern for politicians and climate talks in Doha, as they show that global warming is real and having major consequences that will only get bigger over time," Trenberth said by email.

As the World Meteorological Organization put it in a report released Wednesday during this week's UN climate change talks in Doha, Qatar, "climate change is taking place before our eyes." (See a map of global warming impacts worldwide.)

In addition to displacing millions, sea level rise may also supercharge large storms. For example, when a storm like Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, higher seas may boost storm surges that can strip away everything in their path and create damaging floods.

Sandy left at least 157 people dead and caused up to $80 billion in damage in hard-hit New York and New Jersey alone.

Predicting Future Climate Change

Study leader Shepherd hopes that climate modelers will be able to use this new data to better predict these consequences.

Until now, a modeler had to "choose an estimate of sea level rise from a pot of 40 ones with some uncertainty," he said.

Such a reconciled data set has been sorely needed, agreed Walt Meier, of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

"You have this huge range of estimates of ice mass loss from Antarctica and Greenland—they're such a large range that you get to the point of you don't know what to trust," said Meier, who was not involved in the new study. (See pictures of shrinking ice sheets.)

The new study is in "a much more manageable range, and provides much better guidance in terms of future projections."

What's more, the study may even usher in a stronger model of another kind—scientific cooperation, Meier noted.

Instead of myriad groups working quasi-independently, the new study's co-authors "came together and sat down—at least figuratively—and came to a consensus for the best estimate that they can," he said.

"It's a great example," he said, "that in climate science and science in general, you can't do these kind of big things on your own anymore."

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Obama Lunches With Romney as 'Cliff' Talks Falter

President Obama and Mitt Romney met face to face today for the first time since the election, breaking bread at the White House as talks over the looming "fiscal cliff" appeared to be faltering on Capitol Hill.

"I bet it was and is quite tasty," Obama spokesman Jay Carney said of the lunch as it was underway, "because [the chefs] know how to prepare very fine meals."

The menu included white turkey chili and Southwestern grilled chicken salad, the White House said in a written statement following the meal. The discussion was said to center on "America's leadership in the world and the importance of maintaining that leadership position in the future."

The former rivals concluded their 70-minute encounter with a visit to the Oval Office, the symbolic center of American power to which Romney has long tried to accede, shaking hands before the iconic "Resolute" presidential desk.

"Governor Romney congratulated the President for the success of his campaign and wished him well over the coming four years," the White House said. "They pledged to stay in touch, particularly if opportunities to work together on shared interests arise in the future."

The lunch took place in an elegant private dining room in the West Wing overlooking the manicured gardens of the White House South Lawn. Romney was seen coming and going from a side entrance in a black SUV. The former GOP nominee arrived without fanfare or entourage, opening his own car door both times.

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President Obama said during a news conference earlier this month that he was interested in speaking with Romney about his ideas on jobs and economic growth, noting that his rival had "presented some ideas during the course of the campaign that I actually agree with."

Administration officials said there was no formal agenda for today's lunch or a "specific ask" or assignment for the governor.

Romney, who has kept a relatively low profile since losing the election on Nov. 6, has not publicly addressed Obama's post-election overtures or the prospect of working together. Both men have little personal history and had a chilly relationship during the campaign.

Senior Romney campaign strategist Eric Fehrnstrom called Obama's lunch invitation "gracious" and said that Romney was "glad to accept." The governor also met earlier Thursday in Washington with former running mate Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

The Obama-Romney detente came as talks between the White House and congressional Republicans to prevent the economy from going over the "fiscal cliff" of mandatory spending cuts and tax increases set for Jan. 1 appeared to hit a snag.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the lead White House negotiator in the talks, and White House legislative chief Rob Nabors held a flurry of meetings today with congressional leaders of both parties in the House and Senate.

But following sessions, top Republicans poured cold water on what had been budding optimism of progress toward a deal.

"No substantive progress has been made over the last two weeks," said House Speaker John Boehner at a press conference.

"We know what the menu is. What we don't know is what the White House is willing to do to get serious about solving our debt crisis," he said, accusing the administration of failing to detail plans for significant spending cuts to correspond with desired tax revenue increases.

Obama and Boehner spoke by phone Wednesday night, sources told ABC News, their second conversation in four days. Boehner described it as "direct and straightforward," but suggested "disappointment" with Obama's reticence to waver on hiking tax rates on the wealthy.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in advance of his meeting with Geithner, said everything the White House has put down on the table so far has been "counterproductive," and he hopes that the Treasury Secretary brings "a specific plan from the president" with him today.

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Football: Fulham deny Benitez a first Chelsea goal

LONDON: Rafael Benitez was still searching for his first win since his controversial appointment as Chelsea manager after they were held to a goalless draw by Fulham in a west London derby at Stamford Bridge.

Wednesday saw Benitez largely spared the hostile reception he received during his first game in charge against Premier League champions Manchester City -- also a scoreless draw -- four days previously.

But this was hardly a performance to win over those supporters who opposed the Spaniard's appointment as Roberto di Matteo's successor.

The final whistle was greeted with boos from the home supporters and with Chelsea now without a win in six Premier League games, Benitez must find a way to help the European champions recover their cutting edge if he is to revive the club's domestic title ambitions.

Fernando Torres suffered another frustrating night that was summed up when a second-half volley was cleared off the line and the Spaniard has now gone almost 11 hours without a league goal.

Fulham -- who have also now gone six league games without a win -- could claim to have created the better chances while Dimitar Berbatov was the game's outstanding player.

Benitez made two changes from the side the drew with Manchester City with Oriol Romeu coming in for John Obi Mikel and, more significantly, Ryan Bertrand replacing Juan Mata as one of three offensive midfielders.

The inclusion of Bertrand -- best known as a left-back -- followed on from the manager's pre-match admission his first priority was to strengthen the team's defensive foundations.

Unfortunately for the former Liverpool manager, Chelsea were much less convincing going forward.

An uninspiring start to the game did little to rouse a subdued home crowd who saved their loudest voices for the chant of "only one di Matteo" in the 16th minute, a tribute to Benitez's predecessor who wore the number 16 shirt during his playing days at the club.

Chelsea's attacking play was ponderous and it was telling their best chance of the opening half came when Branislav Ivanovic broke speedily from defence and the ball found its way to Cesar Azpilicueta on the right via Eden Hazard.

The right back's low cross found Torres who turned and shot but his effort lacked venom and was directed straight at Mark Schwarzer.

There was a smattering of boos from the home supporters at half-time and it was clear Chelsea would have to move through the gears if they were to spark life into the game.

They started the second period with more conviction although their best work was done on the fringes of the Fulham penalty area.

Instead it was the visitors who created the better chances with Berbatov at the heart of Fulham's best moves.

The Bulgarian was narrowly adjudged to be offside when he was sent clear on Petr Cech's goal.

But an even clearer opportunity came Fulham's way moments later when Giorgios Karagounis picked out John Arne Riise run beyond Luiz only for the left-back to direct a tame shot straight at the Chelsea keeper from inside the area.

Cech was the busier of the keepers, saving well from Karagounis, Chris Baird and a much better effort from Riise as Berbatov continued to out-wit the Chelsea centre-backs and holding midfielders.

Benitez introduced Mata for Bertrand in a bid to inject more creativity into the Chelsea attack but apart from a half-chance to Ramires and a mis-directed header from Ivanovic, they continued to offer only a limited threat.

-AFP/ac

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Indira Gandhi lent Indian politics the dynastic shift: Ramachandra Guha

BANGALORE: The Congress led by Indira Gandhi fostered a generation of hero worship and dynasty politics after 1969. This inspired many others like Muthuvel Karunanidhi, who started off with noble intentions to fight against caste discriminations, to do the same and has led to a centralization of politics in present India, said Ramachandra Guha, on Wednesday.

He was speaking during the launch of his latest book, Patriots and Partisans.

The 54-year-old historian went on to add that Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the most charismatic leaders of Indian politics, has been slowly losing his popularity because of the Congress's dynastic politics.

"Sins of seven successive generations have been bestowed on Nehru," he said light-heartedly.

The highest paid non-fiction writer of the country also slammed the phenomenon called the 'Congress chamchagiri'. "I saw a long queue of Congress party members waiting outside Rahul Gandhi's house during his birthday, a couple of years ago, braving scorching sun. Nevertheless, Rahul didn't come out to greet them while the 100 kilogram cake they had brought for him disintegrated leaving a trail from the Congress general secretary's house till the Indira Gandhi circle," he said.

He said that scientific institutions in Delhi couldn't achieve the success of ones in other parts of the country as officials chosen in the capital-based institutions are often selected on the recommendation of politicians.

Guha went on to add that massacre of Muslims in Hyderabad during the annexation of the state by the Indian army happened before the constitution came into being in 1950, but it is sad that the perpetrators of 1984 Sikh massacre and 2002 Muslim massacre in Gujarat, which were initiated by Congress and BJP, respectively, haven't still been punished.

He slammed right and left wing politicians, saying that the citizens have allowed the Hindu rightists' claims to be truly patriots of the country because the left is often considered anti-patriotic because their fatherland has always been a different country - depending upon the prevalence of Marxists movements in these countries, like China, the USSR, Cuba and currently Venezuela - and also due to the high decibel levels and angry outbreaks of the saffron brigade.

"Violence unleashed by left ( Naxalites) and right (Hindu fundamentalists) is against democracy, liberalism, religious plularism and tolerance, the idea that our Constitution promotes. Citizens should protect the country from these extremisms," he said.

TOO EARLY

Guha had a word of advice for the Arvind Kejriwal-launched Aam Aadmi Party, saying that it's too early for them to participate in the 2014 general elections. "Their current economic policies are a bit naive," he added.

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Black Hole Blast Biggest Ever Recorded

Astronomers have witnessed a record-breaking blast of gas and dust flowing out of a monster black hole more than 11.5 billion light-years away.

The supermassive gravity well, with a mass of one to three billion suns, lurks at the core of a quasar—a class of extremely bright and energetic galaxies—dubbed SDSS J1106 1939. (See "Black Hole Blasts Superheated Early Universe.")

"We discovered the most energetic quasar outflow ever seen, at least five times more powerful than any that have been observed to date," said Nahum Arav, an astronomer at Virginia Tech and co-author of the study to be published in The Astrophysical Journal.

Using the powerful telescopes of the European Southern Observatory in Chile, Arav and his team were able to clock the speed and other properties of the outflow.

Belching out material as much as 400 times the weight of our sun every year, the blast is located nearly a thousand light-years from the quasar and has a velocity of roughly 18 million miles (29 million kilometers) per hour.

"We were hoping to see something like this, but the sheer power of this outflow still took us by surprise," said Arav.

The central black hole in this quasar is true giant dynamo. It's estimated to be upward of a thousand times more massive than the one in the Milky Way, producing energy at rates about a hundred times higher than the total power output of our galaxy. (See black hole pictures.)

Clues to Galaxy Evolution

Supermassive black holes are large enough to swallow our entire solar system and are notorious for ripping apart and swallowing stars. But they also power distant quasars and spew out material at high speeds.

(See "Monster Black Holes Gobble Binary Stars to Grow?")

The outflows have been suspected to play a key role in the evolution of galaxies, explained Arav, but questions have persisted for years in the astronomical community as to whether they were powerful enough.

This newly discovered super outflow could solve major cosmic mysteries, including how the mass of a galaxy is linked to its central black hole mass and why there is a relative scarcity of large galaxies across the universe.

"I believe this is the smoking gun for several theoretical ideas that use the mechanical energy output of quasars to solve several important problems in the formation of galaxies and cluster of galaxies," said Arav.

While Kirk Korista, an astronomer not connected to the study, believes these claims may be a bit premature, the research is expected to shed new light on the most powerful and least understood portions of typical quasar outflows.

"The superb spectroscopic data of this quasar have allowed for a breakthrough in quantifying the energetics of what is probably a typical quasar outflow," said Korista, an astronomy professor at Western Michigan University.

"This definitely is an important step in piecing together the story of galaxy evolution, and in elucidating the role of quasars in that story."

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Dos, Don'ts of Powerball Office Pools

Powerball fever is sweeping the nation.

The Powerball jackpot is at a record high of $550 million. And with the winnings so high, everyone is rushing to buy a ticket in the hope that they'll be the lucky winner.

A popular means of lotto ticket purchasing is an office pool -- in which a group of colleagues pools their money, buys a slate of tickets together and promises to share the winnings equally. It can be a fun bonding experience with your co-workers, but there are do's and don'ts to abide by, on the off-chance that your ticket(s) have the winning numbers.

DO

Write a Contract

It may seem too serious for what's supposed to be fun and harmless, but this amount of money can make people a little crazy, so it's worth taking precautions. You don't need to draft a formal, notorized document -- a simple piece of paper with the terms of your pool and everyone's signature suffices. Make sure to store a copy of the contract in a safe place.

Make Sure Everyone Contributes an Equal Amount

Sure, if you contribute $2 and your colleague contributes $4, that's not a big difference. But if you win, that colleague will have a claim to 50 percent more of the pool than you, and that will undoubtedly create some office tension.

Photocopy the Tickets for All Participants

Yes, it's unlikely that someone would lie about the tickets outcome, say they lost when they won, claim the money, and then come into the office and continue acting like nothing had happened. But it's unlikely that you're going to win the lottery in the first place, so normal reasoning does not apply here.

Make a List of People Who Opted Out This Time

DON'T

Rely on a Verbal Contract

Words won't hold up in a court of law if someone claims the winning ticket first and runs off with all of the winnings for themselves.

Let Anyone Contribute Money on Behalf of Someone Else

It's a nice idea to include all of your colleagues, even the ones who are out of the office the day you buy the tickets, or short of cash for the pool. But if you do win, those individuals who did not actually put up any of their own money for the tickets will almost certainly not be seen as having a legitimate claim to the winnings.

Trust the Tickets to the Interns

They're working for little to no money, so their loyalty is probably low.

Run Multiple Pools at Once

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Keeping the financial regulators on their toes

When members of Congress need factual information and insights into the effectiveness of the financial laws put in place after the 2008 economic crisis, they regularly turn to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and Orice Williams Brown.

Initially as director and now as managing director of the GAO’s financial markets and community investment section, Brown and her staff have issued dozens of reports examining the flaws and offering recommendations to improve the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailout fund, the Wall Street regulatory reform law and the initiatives to prevent housing foreclosures.

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Football: Redknapp's QPR debut yields point

LONDON: Harry Redknapp's first match as Queens Park Rangers manager saw the Premier League basement club collect a point in a goalless draw away to Sunderland on Tuesday.

It was QPR's first point since they drew 1-1 with Reading on November 4 but the result meant the west London club, who last week sacked Mark Hughes as their manager, remained bottom of the table.

But in the day's other top-flight match Aston Villa moved out of the bottom three after Christian Benteke's goal 10 minutes from time secured a 1-0 win at home to fellow strugglers Reading.

Victory moved Villa two points clear of the relegation zone, with QPR eight from safety.

"We worked hard and we deserved a point tonight," said Redknapp, whom QPR's Malaysian owner Tony Fernandes hopes can repeat the rescue missions that helped both Portsmouth and Tottenham stay in the Premier League after poor starts to top-flight campaigns.

"We defended well and denied them chances," Redknapp, also told Sky Sports. "I feel more optimistic tonight than on Saturday (when QPR lost 3-1 to Manchester United).

"I saw enough tonight to think we can go on a small run and keep ourselves in the pack," the veteran English manager insisted.

Sunderland manager Martin O'Neill was left with a feeling of "frustration," saying: "I was hoping we would win the game.

"I know QPR will be buoyed by Harry Redknapp's appointment but I thought we could create enough to win. There were chances at both ends but it was a frustrating evening."

Meanwhile under-pressure Villa manager Paul Lambert, who for the second match in a row didn't even have club record signing Darren Bent on the bench, let alone in the starting line-up, was delighted with Benteke's 80th minute header that secured a valuable win at Villa Park.

"Benteke's done fantastic for me. He was up against a big lad. It was a fantastic header."

Lambert added: "Darren Bent just has to play well and train well. He has a future, everybody has.

"Nothing against anybody in the club, but I've got 25 lads to look after. Bent and Benteke can play together -- they did against Southampton.

"I've got to pick a team I think will win."

Tuesday's matches saw the Premier League welcome its 250 millionth fan through the turnstiles, over 20 years after the League launched on August 15, 1992.

Attendances at the Stadium of the Light (36,513) and Villa Park (28,692) pushed the figure beyond the 250 million barrier.

-AFP/ac

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IIT-Kanpur flushes rail bio-toilet plan

CHENNAI: Scientists of IIT-Kanpur have thrown the kitchen sink at a high-tech solution to a messy problem: How to keep the world's largest railway network clean and prevent corrosion of lines when train toilets unload waste directly on the tracks.

Bio-toilets developed by the Indian Railways and Defence Research and Development Organization have earned praise from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, but IIT scientists say they are neither environment-friendly nor suitable for trains.

But Indian Railways, which has for several years been searching for a way to prevent spreading human excreta across the countryside and stop track corrosion, which costs it350 crore a year, is betting on the bio-toilets.

Officials say they tested the system extensively and, since January 2011, installed 436 bio-toilets on eight trains. The railways plans to install bio-toilets in all new coaches at a cost of 500 crore.

The bio-toilet uses 'cold-active' bacteria collected from Antarctica and other low temperature areas to treat waste, turning it into water and gas that are disinfected before being expelled from the train.

IIT-Kanpur studied the toilets when they were put on trial three years ago. "There is no magic bacteria that can treat waste fast enough for use in a train toilet," said Vinod Tare, professor, environmental engineering and management, IIT-Kanpur.

IIT-Kanpur and the Research Design and Standards Organisation developed a zero discharge toilet that the railways tried but rejected.

"Such toilets are suitable for houses not for trains because a large number of people will need to use them in a short span of time."

Tare said the whole project was based on misinformation. "With every flush untreated waste is expelled through different levels and finally on the tracks," he said.

But railways officials insist that they have fixed the problems with the system. "We have eliminated the drawbacks that IIT-Kanpur pointed out," Railway Board executive director (mechanical engineering) Shailendra Singh said. |

"We are using stronger bacteria and garbage tossed into the commode will not affect the functioning of the toilet."

A mild swipe of the bacteria on the sides of the toilet box is enough to clean the toilet once, but the railways will load several kilograms of the bacteria in each toilet box.

"The toilets will save a lot of money because they will reduce corrosion of railway tracks and the undercarriage of coaches need not need to be replaced often," said a senior official with Southern Railway, which operates the Chennai-Guwahati Express, which uses bio-toilets.

"We found more than 5 kg of gutka sachets when a box was opened during an overhaul," he said. "The garbage did not affect the bacteria and there was no odour."

The technology is effective, official said, but passengers will have to cooperate with the railways and display discipline akin to that expected of aircraft passengers. A page on bio-toilets posted on Indian Railways' website says passengers are expected not to use the toilet pan as a garbage bin.

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Pictures: Falcon Massacre Uncovered in India

Photograph courtesy Conservation India

A young boy can sell bundles of fresh Amur falcons (pictured) for less than five dollars. Still, when multiplied by the thousands of falcons hunters can catch in a day, the practice can be a considerable financial boon to these groups.

Since discovering the extent of Amur hunting in Nagaland this fall, Conservation India has taken the issue to the local Indian authorities.

"They have taken it very well. They've not been defensive," Sreenivasan said.

"You're not dealing with national property, you're dealing with international property, which helped us put pressure on [them]." (Related: "Asia's Wildlife Trade.")

According to Conservation India, the same day the group filed their report with the government, a fresh order banning Amur hunting was issued. Local officials also began meeting with village leaders, seizing traps and confiscating birds. The national government has also requested an end to the hunting.

Much remains to be done, but because the hunt is so regional, Sreenivasan hopes it can eventually be contained and stamped out. Authorities there, he said, are planning a more thorough investigation next year, with officials observing, patrolling, and enforcing the law.

"This is part of India where there is some amount of acceptance on traditional bush hunting," he added. "But at some point, you draw the line."

(Related: "Bush-Meat Ban Would Devastate Africa's Animals, Poor?")

Published November 27, 2012

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